---
id: "8bdd5885-dfc4-4a64-9ffb-672ff10a667d"
title: "Titan of Ti"
report_type: "initiation"
published_date: "2026-10-05"
source: "Homodeus Research"
source_url: "https://homodeus.one"
report_url: "https://homodeus.one/research/report/mclaren-minerals-mml-ax-titan-ti-initiation-coverage"
lead_analyst: "Anthony  Han"
lead_analyst_email: "anthony.han@homodeus.one"
access: "full"
requires_payment: false
issuer_paid: true
html_access: "free-registration"
html_registration_required: true
company: "McLaren Minerals Limited"
ticker: "MML.AX"
exchange: "ASX"
gics_sector: "Materials"
gics_industry_group: "Materials"
country: "Australia"
country_of_listing: "Australia"
theme: "Materials"
currency: "AUD"
price_at_report: 0.012
publication_date: "2026-10-05"
price_date: "2026-09-30"
market_cap_m: 6.1
shares_on_issue: 505461159
week_52_high: 0.04
week_52_low: 0.01
avg_daily_volume: 1097443
valuation_target: 0.11
valuation_method: "DCF"
commissioned_by: "McLaren Minerals Limited"
isin: "AU0000369662"
markdown_url: "https://homodeus.one/api/reports/mclaren-minerals-mml-ax-titan-ti-initiation-coverage.md"
bot_friendly: true
keywords: "Materials"
modified_date: "2026-10-07T04:16:39.657Z"
---

# Titan of Ti

## Stock Information

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Ticker | MML.AX (ASX) |
| Price at Report | AUD 0.012 (2026-09-30) |
| Market Cap | AUD 6.1M |
| Shares on Issue | 505,461,159 |
| 52-Week High | AUD 0.04 |
| 52-Week Low | AUD 0.01 |
| Avg Daily Volume | 1,097,443 |
| GICS Sector | Materials |
| Industry Group | Materials |
| Country of Listing | Australia |

**McLaren Minerals Limited (MML.AX)** is an Australian mineral exploration and development company with two projects.

**The McLaren project**, one of the world's largest undeveloped titanium-rich mineral sands deposits, is a large heavy mineral sands development. It has advanced from a successful PFS and is now in a BFS. **With the BFS underway, production could start in the latter part of 2028 if all goes according to plan.**

**The Barossa Project** in South Australia's Eucla Basin is an approximately 50-kilometre-long, zircon-rich heavy mineral sands system with potential for rare earth elements. Acquired from Iluka Resources, this is an early-stage asset.

## Key Highlights

**Asset Scale & Grade**
- Globally Significant Deposit: The core McLaren Titanium Project in Western Australia’s Eucla Basin hosts a JORC-compliant resource of 529Mt @ 4.5% Heavy Minerals (HM) containing 23.7Mt of in-situ HM.
- High-Grade Mineralisation: Heavy mineral assemblages consist primarily of titanium-rich ilmenite, alongside rutile, leucoxene, and zircon.
- Exploration Upside: The current drilling program has consistently intersected high-grade zones from surface (e.g., 24m @ 7.54% HM) exceeding existing resource average grades. Over 60% of the Mineral Resource remains outside the initial mining inventory used in the PFS.
**Strong Economics**
- PFS Economics: The completed Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) points to compelling project economics, featuring an IRR of 26% in the pre-tax base case and a rapid payback period of 3.7 years.
- Long Mine Life: The initial conceptual mining case outlines 185.7Mt @ 5.85% HM, supporting a 15.9-year initial mine life.
- Path to Development: Currently advancing through a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) with further geological and metallurgical optimisation underway.
**Project Pipeline & Critical Mineral Exposure**
- Barossa Project Expansion: Early-stage project acquired from Iluka Resources across a 50km zircon-rich heavy mineral system with rare earth element (monazite) upside. (Transfer of the tenements is awaiting regulatory approval)

## Valuation

| Parameter | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Price Target | AUD 0.11 |
| Methodology | DCF |

## Upcoming Catalysts

| Period | Event |
| --- | --- |
| Q2 2027 | Completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for the McLaren Titanium Project with the potential for a larger-scale project – The PFS currently supports a 15.9-year mine life, with a pre-tax NPV8 of A$252m and 26% IRR. Importantly, this is based on only part of the overall resource. |
| CY 2027 | Signing offtake agreements and reaching a final investment decision (FID). |
| Q4 2026 | Final regulatory approval for the transfer of tenements relating to the Barossa Project acquisition. |

## The Long View

**Investment Thesis:** McLaren Minerals' opportunity is to turn a PFS-backed, long-life ilmenite project into production while simultaneously growing the resource. The Mclaren Titanium Project is a tier one globally significant asset with a high quality sulphate ilmenite product as the main revenue stream, with valuable heavy mineral (HM)  byproducts improving project economics. There is valuable optionality in the Barossa Project a mineral sands and rare earths prospect.

### Scenarios

| Scenario | Target | vs Current | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upside | AUD 0.22 | | Confidence in moving to Final Investment Decision, justifying a lower risk premium. With further de-risking and with the Barossa tenements transferred a higher valuation is justifiable. |
| Base Case | AUD 0.11 | | The ongoing BFS continues to show potential resource upgrades, de-risking the project further. Completion of the BFS at the end of H1 2027. |
| Downside | AUD 0.010 | | Delays to the BFS and potential funding question marks cloud the McLaren Titanium Project's viability. No resolution on the transfer of the Barossa tenements. |

**Sustainability Matters:** Critical Mineral Supply for Green Tech: MML focuses on extracting titanium minerals (ilmenite, rutile, leucoxene), which are designated as critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies.
Stewardship & Governance Strategy: MML's Sustainability Strategy frames its operational footprint around six core areas—health & safety, environment, people, community development, stakeholder engagement, and governance—targeting reduced carbon intensity and responsible land management.

**Catalysts:**

- Updated Mineral Resource Estimate: Incorporating recent 2026 drilling results (which yielded high-grade intercepts like 24m @ 7.54% HM) into an upgraded JORC resource model expected later this year to increase tonnage and resource confidence.
- Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) & Reserve Conversion: Transitioning the project from its January 2026 Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)—which outlined an initial A$252M pre-tax NPV—to a completed BFS and maiden Ore Reserve declaration.
- Offtake Agreements & Commercial Partnerships: Securing binding offtake contracts or strategic partner funding for key titanium minerals (ilmenite, rutile, leucoxene) and zircon.
- Exploration Progress at the Barossa Project: Progressing initial exploration and drill target definition on the recently acquired, zircon-rich Barossa Project in South Australia.

# Executive Summary

## McLaren Minerals Limited (ASX: MML)

**McLaren Minerals holds two primary tenements,** Barossa and McLaren. The company's core focus is advancing its flagship McLaren Titanium Project, which is currently undergoing a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS). The Barossa tenements are awaiting transfer approval from the regulator.

**McLaren Minerals** is advancing its flagship **McLaren Titanium Project** in Western Australia toward commercial production, possibly in the second half of 2028. The project represents a globally significant, tier-one heavy mineral sands asset with strong economic fundamentals, straightforward open-pit mining logistics, and low operational risk. There is potential for further resource increases and an expanded footprint around the McLaren deposit.
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/4ad40fcf-53eb-4ac7-b9c3-85869faf149f)
**With the BFS underway following attractive PFS results, the project has passed a significant de-risking milestone**.

**Key Project Financials & Economics from the PFS:**
- Pre-Tax NPV8: A$252.2 million.
- Pre-Tax IRR: 26.0% with a 3.7-year payback period.
- Life of Mine (LoM) Revenue & EBITDA: A$2.60 billion in total revenue (~A$56.5 million average annual EBITDA) with a 34.6% margin.
- Initial Upfront CAPEX: A$179.3 million (includes A$19.8 million contingency).

**Resource & Operational Highlights:**
- An initial 15.9-year mine life is based on a 185.7 Mt mining inventory @ 5.85% HM, leaving over 60% of the current total resource unmined and available for expansion.
- MML has a strong product mix, with ilmenite concentrate as the main product, targeting ~400,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of high-grade sulphate ilmenite alongside premium co-products (zircon, rutile, and leucoxene). Surface access with minimal overburden, conventional dry mining, free-flowing sands and co-disposal tailings handling support manageable capital expenditure and simple processing with low mining complexity.

**Secondary Asset (Barossa Project):**
- Acquired from Iluka Resources in South Australia, the Barossa tenement includes the Kalahari, Mojave, and Gobi prospects (~4.6% HM average grade, rich in ilmenite and zircon).

## Valuation, Risks and Catalysts:

**We value McLaren Minerals at A$0.11 per share based on a DCF valuation of the McLaren Project. This assumes a Q3–Q4 2028 start of production. Execution is key.**
- We currently assign zero valuation weight pending final regulatory approval and formal tenement transfer, but note that MML will pay upon transfer of the tenements A$75,000 in cash plus A$150,000 in equity (A$225,000 in total). Deferred consideration of $25,000 in cash or $50,000 in equity will be paid on the first anniversary of the transaction, with further consideration payable in cash or equity when additional milestones are met.

**Upcoming Catalysts & Key Risks:**
- The catalysts include ongoing metallurgical test results, an updated Mineral Resource Estimate and maiden Ore Reserve (late 2026 to early-2027), completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study (mid-2027), securing debt and/or equity project financing, and execution of offtake agreements.
- Potential risks include capital funding and equity dilution (a $179.3m pre-production capital expenditure program). However, the level of equity funding will depend on alternative funding sources, such as customer-provided funding or bank debt which may in turn depend on offtake agreements or other customer commitments. Other risks include regulatory permitting and environmental approvals, execution delays, and global macroeconomic conditions that can influence pricing. There is foreign exchange exposure on the revenue side due to US dollar commodity pricing.

# Titan of Ti(O2)

**McLaren Minerals,** formerly known as Allup Silica Limited (ASX: APL), changed its name to McLaren Minerals Limited (ASX: MML) in December 2024, following the 100% acquisition of the McLaren and Eucla West Mineral Sands Project in August 2024.

Then, in December 2025, McLaren Minerals purchased the Barossa project from Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU).

There is a legacy project, the Sparkler project, a silica sand asset 150km from the Port of Albany in Western Australia.

## The Tenements:
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/0ec14292-c64d-4a05-89d7-a83e525304c8)
**The McLaren Titanium project and the Barossa project bookend the Eucla Basin**, with McLaren in the west and Barossa in the east. The ancient sea that once covered this region left highly prospective heavy-mineral deposits along former shorelines, or ‘strandlines’, as it receded.

## The McLaren Project: A significant global asset.
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/a240984d-0461-497b-891f-9c09d6ad1c30)
In August 2024, MML acquired 100% of the McLaren Project from the private companies Westover Holdings Pty Ltd and Wild Side (WA) Pty Ltd.

**Key details of the acquisition transaction included:**

• Consideration: $150,000 in upfront cash, 4,241,571 ordinary shares, and 2,000,000 unlisted options.

• Royalty: A 1.5% net smelter royalty was granted to the original private sellers.

**This acquisition gave MML a significant, tier-one heavy mineral asset. It ranks as one of the largest undeveloped titanium-bearing mineral sand deposits globally. Along with the TiO₂ potential, there is valuable byproduct potential containing zircon, rutile and leucoxene.**

**While the McLaren Titanium Project is dominated by ilmenite (the primary titanium feedstock driving the project's economics), the non-ilmenite heavy minerals—specifically zircon, rutile, and leucoxene—play a role in the project’s overall economics, product margins, and revenue diversification.**

**Product Breakdown & Economic Impact**
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/9af9a700-54d1-4d57-aad6-ab1803a63f7a)- Ilmenite (the primary driver): Accounts for the vast majority of the Heavy Mineral (HM) concentrate. It provides the high-tonnage baseline revenue required to scale mining operations and justify processing infrastructure.
- Zircon (a high-value co-product): Though present in smaller percentages within the mineral assemblage, zircon commands significantly higher market prices per tonne than ilmenite. It serves as a major margin booster, generating disproportionately high revenue per unit of weight extracted.
- Rutile & Leucoxene (premium titanium feedstocks): Represent higher-grade titanium minerals (>90% TiO2 for rutile). They upgrade the average value of the total titanium product suite.

- Processing Efficiencies: Because the secondary minerals are extracted concurrently with ilmenite in standard wet concentrator (gravity/spiral) and magnetic separation circuits, their recovery adds minimal incremental operating cost per tonne, increasing the strategic value of the McLaren Project.

As of the beginning of the year, the completed pre-feasibility study showed the project hosting  a JORC (2012)-compliant Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource estimated at **529Mt @ 4.5% Heavy Minerals (HM)** for **23.7Mt in-situ HM.**

**The latest results from the ongoing BFS have come in stronger than the JORC-compliant estimates used in the PFS.**
- 19 August 2026 – Average HM grade of 4.96% over an average of 15.8m depth;
- 1 September 2026 – Average HM grade of 5.44% over an average of 16.2m depth, and
- 15 September 2026 – Average HM grade of 4.57% over an average depth of 21m.

**The next mineral resource update is due later in the year, which will factor in these results.**
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/da8b3b27-cb5e-4800-9533-704fdd62da1d)
These results show good consistency across the mineralised profile, a potentially important characteristic for development. *Consistent grades can reduce geological variability in future resource modelling and provide a stronger basis for mine design, production scheduling and process-feed planning. These potential development benefits remain subject to completion of the updated Mineral Resource Estimate, metallurgical test work and detailed mining and economic studies*.

**One of the attractions of this project is its low technical and operational complexity.**

**Key factors that make the mine design straightforward include:**
- Surface Access: The heavy mineral sand deposit sits directly at or near the surface, requiring little to no initial overburden removal or complex pit geometry.
- Conventional Mining Methods: The mine design relies on standard, conventional dry-mining methods (such as dozer traps).
- Free-Flowing Sand: The deposit consists primarily of soft, free-flowing  sands, avoiding the need for blasting or hard-rock crushing before processing.
- Standard Processing Infrastructure: Ore is fed directly into a mobile Mining Unit Plant (MUP) and pumped as a slurry to a standard Wet Concentrator Plant (WCP), utilising traditional gravity spirals and magnetic separation.
- Co-Disposal Tailings Handling: Tailings and thickened slimes are blended and returned directly into the rear of the open pit void as mining progresses, simplifying long-term mine rehabilitation and waste storage design.

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/ccf1f4d2-bb6a-4093-a95a-c8f4abdec295)
# Market Dynamics & Offtake Strategy

**The primary product,** McLaren's high-grade sulphate ilmenite (containing ~96% combined iron and TiO₂​), will be optimised for smelting into chloride slag. **The chloride process also produces a higher-value material; therefore, MML’s material may** command a premium.

When smelting **McLaren Minerals’** ilmenite, the iron by-product is created downstream during titanium slag production in an Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). Advantageously, McLaren's high-grade sulphate ilmenite also creates less waste during processing.

The step-by-step breakdown of where and how the iron by-product is isolated:
- The Input Feedstock: MML’s primary asset yields a high-quality sulphate ilmenite (FeTiO₃). Ilmenite naturally contains a high combination of both titanium and iron.
- The Smelting Stage: Instead of using a traditional chemical-only route, the ilmenite is treated in a downstream Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) for titanium slag manufacturing.
- The Separation: Inside the EAF, intense thermal processing separates the two main elements. The iron content within the ilmenite provides the necessary thermodynamic conditions for smelting to occur.
- The Co-product Generation: As the titanium is upgraded into a highly concentrated chloride slag, the iron melts out to form a distinct, high-value High-Grade Pig Iron (HPPI) co-product stream. The chloride slag is then processed to produce TiO₂.

As the BFS progresses, MML is working to secure offtake partners for the sulphate ilmenite, which can serve both **sulphate pigment producers and higher-value chloride-slag markets**. This gives the company some flexibility in marketing the product.

## Potential Project Timeline
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/e66314bf-ddc6-40c5-826f-e435cfa69b3e)
Given the ease of mining and the reasonably simple flow sheet to produce ilmenite concentrate, **if the BFS is completed by mid-2027 and offtake agreements are in hand by the first half of 2027, it is not out of the question to see production starting up in late 2028. **This would assume hassle-free mine construction. As of now, there are no offtake agreements in place.

##  The Pre-Feasibility Study

**PFS summary:**
- McLaren Titanium Project (WA): 100% owned by MMLResource & Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS): Features a total JORC resource of 529 million tonnes (Mt). The PFS outlined a 186 Mt mining inventory at 5.85% heavy minerals, representing roughly 35% of the total resource over a 15.9-year mine life.
- PFS Financial Metrics: Target production of 400,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of ilmenite concentrate with a 35% margin, NPV8 of $252 million, IRR of 26%, and total life-of-mine revenue of $2.6 billion (A$56.5 million average annual EBITDA). Payback period is estimated at 3.7 years.

### The Pre-Feasibility Study:

The Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the 100%-owned [McLaren Titanium Project](https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/mml/announcements/mclaren-titanium-project-prefeasibility-study-6A1306858) outlined a robust, long-life mineral sands operation that confirmed its economic viability.

**Key Financial Metrics**
- Pre-Tax NPV₈: A$252.2 million
- Pre-Tax IRR: 26.0%
- Payback Period: 3.7 years
- Total Net Revenue (LoM): A$2.60 billion
- Average Annual EBITDA: ~A$56.5 million (A$899.7 million Life of Mine total)
- EBITDA: A$128.7 per dry metric tonne (DMT) (~34.6% margin)
- Pre-Production Capital (CAPEX): A$179.3 million (includes A$19.8m contingency)

**Operational & Production Parameters**
- Mine Life: 15.9 years based on a high-level conceptual pit containing 185.7 Mt @ 5.85% Heavy Minerals (HM).
- Processing Rate: 11.8 Mtpa utilising dry mining techniques with wet concentrator gravity and magnetic separation.
- Ilmenite Concentrate: 407 ktpa average annual production (6,477 kt total) priced at a base case of US$250/DMT FOB.
- Non-Magnetic Concentrate: 32.1 ktpa average annual production (511 kt total) containing zircon, rutile, and leucoxene, priced at US$366/DMT.
- Operating Costs: A$243.1/DMT of finished product loaded into vessels (A$106.7m average annual operating cost).

**Resource Base & Technical Highlights**
- Expanded Resource: 529 Mt @ 4.5% HM (249 Mt @ 4.7% HM in Indicated and 280 Mt @ 4.2% HM in Inferred).

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/f7607fc5-e66b-4144-9d43-b0a9dc976038)2 and Slimes % 2% HM mineralisation envelope, reported from blocks with >2% HM and - Upside Potential: Over 60% of the total resource remains unmined under the base conceptual case, leaving substantial scope for expansion during the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS).
- Process risk mitigation: Test work completed with IHC Mining validated slimes management by confirming 100% of slimes can be thickened and co-disposed with coarse tailings using conventional methods. Slimes management had been a risk mentioned in the PFS.

**We can conclude that the PFS shows an economically attractive project with a short payback period and a good return profile. Within the PFS there appear to be a number of opportunities for (mining) process optimisation.**

## The Bankable Feasibility Study.

**After completing the PFS in January 2026, MML started the BFS and initiated a major field campaign. The target completion window for the BFS is late 2026 to mid-2027.**
- Work Progress: MML completed its major 2026 drilling campaign (663 holes for 11,568 metres). This was a key initial milestone required to advance the BFS.
- Next Steps: The drilling data, alongside ongoing metallurgical test work, is being integrated into an updated Mineral Resource Estimate and is intended to support a maiden Ore Reserve estimate as part of the ongoing BFS workstreams.

o    The metallurgical test work is assessing whether to incorporate a dry plant to yield higher-value finished ilmenite products directly on-site.

**Initiating the BFS almost immediately after the PFS results were published is a strong indication of this project's viability, sending a strong de-risking signal to the market.**

**Market Dynamics & Offtake Strategy**
- Product Application: McLaren's high-grade sulphate ilmenite (containing ~96% combined iron and TiO2​) is optimised for smelting into chloride slag, giving a valuable pig iron by-product.
- Regional Smelter Growth: Increasing demand for high-grade feedstocks is driven by new or expanding chloride slag furnaces across China and the Middle East (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and northern China).
- Funding & Project Execution: Offtake agreements will serve as the primary cornerstone for project debt and equity financing. Once final investment decision (FID) is reached, construction to commercial production is estimated at approximately 12 months.

## The Barossa Project:  A zircon & rare earth project in South Australia

·   The Barossa project was acquired from Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) and tenement transfers are pending approval following a formal regulatory site inspection. The specific target prospects forming the Barossa project package were outlined and drilled over the 2008–2019 period by Iluka.

• The target is an ancient shoreline envelope spanning approximately 50 km north to south, located near Iluka’s Jacinth-Ambrosia operations. It features a mineral suite containing ~60% ilmenite, ~16% zircon, 2% rutile, alongside some monazite/rare earth potential. Barossa grades an average of 4.6% heavy minerals (HM).

• The tenements acquired comprise the Kalahari, Mojave, and Gobi prospects, which collectively are known as the Barossa Project.

• The company is paying $75,000 in cash and $150,000 in equity as a first payment, followed by $25,000 in cash or $50,000 in equity at Iluka’s election on the first anniversary (January 2027).

• After delineating a JORC-compliant resource of at least 100 million tonnes at a maximum heavy minerals cut-off grade of 3%, McLaren will pay either $100,000 in cash or $150,000 in equity. After the pre-feasibility study, the company will then pay Iluka $150,000 in cash or $250,000 in equity. This payment is conditional on the pre-feasibility study providing a pre-tax net present value of at least $50 million at an 8% annual discount rate, or on McLaren electing to advance the project to a Bankable Feasibility Study. Following the completion of this acquisition, Iluka will hold a 2% gross revenue royalty on minerals and metals extracted, as well as products sold.

• An early exploration program has been designed. As soon as access to the tenements is available, work will commence.
- As of now, there is no deadline for starting the PFS.

# Valuation:

MML is still at the pre-revenue stage of its journey. However, with the BFS started, the path to commercial production has been de-risked further. **It would be premature to place a value on the Barossa Project since the regulator has not signed off on the tenement transfers yet. However, it is worth noting that there is strong upside potential for MML's valuation once the tenements are signed over and exploration commences, but for right now we will assign it zero value.**

Looking** at the PFS, **the following characteristics are favourable to the McLaren Titanium Project:
- Strong PFS economics: A$252m pre-tax NPV8, 26% IRR and 3.7-year payback.
- Large resource: 529Mt @ 4.5% HM, including 249Mt @ 4.7% HM Indicated.
- Long mine life: initial conceptual mine plan of 15.9 years.
- Conventional mineral-sands operation, rather than an exceptionally technically complex mine.
- Significant resource optionality: more than 60% of the MRE is outside the current mining inventory.
- Technical risk is being reduced: MML's metallurgical work has already produced a process flowsheet and the company describes the process as low-cost and robust.
- Offtake and strategic-partner discussions are already part of the next-stage work program.

### Using a risked NPV approach:

We have modelled MML to include corporate costs and a start-up period, which yields a lower, but still strong NPV. From the sensitivity table below, at an 8% discount rate, the NPV is A$224.466m.

Assigning a 41.5% (see below: A word on Valuation) chance of moving from BFS to production—based on judgement and a general review of mining-project outcomes—would yield a share-price target of A$0.19

at the current estimated share count. The Department of Industry's **Resources and Energy Major Projects** database reported that, in 2025, Australia had **68 projects at the feasibility or advanced-feasibility stage, 61 committed projects and 20 completed projects**.

The biggest remaining risks are **capital funding, final project economics, permitting/environmental approvals, securing attractive offtake, construction execution and titanium-mineral pricing**.

It should be mentioned that MML's revenue is priced in US dollars, giving the company exposure to the exchange rate.

This has a strong effect on NPV, as can be seen from the sensitivity study done.

| Sensitivity analysis |  | Pre-tax NPV by discount rate: |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 224,466.41 | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| A$ to US$ 0.50 | 757,746 | 693,379 | 635,322 | 582,832 | 535,265 |
| 0.53 | 660,376 | 602,627 | 550,542 | 503,455 | 460,787 |
| 0.55 | 571,857 | 520,125 | 473,470 | 431,294 | 393,079 |
| 0.58 | 491,035 | 444,797 | 403,099 | 365,408 | 331,259 |
| 0.60 | 416,949 | 375,746 | 338,593 | 305,013 | 274,590 |
| 0.63 | 348,789 | 312,219 | 279,247 | 249,449 | 222,455 |
| 0.65 | 285,873 | 253,579 | 224,466 | 198,159 | 174,331 |
| 0.68 | 227,617 | 199,283 | 173,743 | 150,668 | 129,771 |
| 0.70 | 173,522 | 148,865 | 126,644 | 106,570 | 88,394 |
| 0.73 | 123,158 | 101,924 | 82,792 | 65,513 | 49,871 |
| 0.75 | 76,151 | 58,113 | 41,864 | 27,193 | 13,916 |
| 0.78 | 32,177 | 17,128 | 3,576 | (8,655) | (19,720) |

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/8845e889-8a30-420b-a35b-8b63c57049a0)

MML has A$0.005 in cash per share based on the current share count.

**Assumptions used to derive revenue:**
- ilmenite concentrate price of US$250/t,
- non-magnetic concentrate, consisting of zircon, rutile and leucoxene, of US$366/t.
- The assumed exchange rate used is US$0.65 to A$1.00.

**Taking account of MML's development from junior explorer to producer, we derive a valuation of A$0.19 per share, including cash on the balance sheet, using a probability-weighted risked NPV (rNPV) approach.**

If you assume the steps are thus:

Exploration→ Discovery→ Resource→ PFS→ BFS/DFS→ Financing→ Construction → Commissioning→ Production.

MML is beyond Exploration, Discovery, Resource and PFS into the BFS:

| Risked Project NPV, relative to the starting point |
| --- |
|  | PFS NPV | DFS/BFS | Permitting | Financing | Construction | Commissioning | Production |  |
| Probability of success | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.95 |  |
| PFS starting point: |  | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.42 | ↢ p(Success) |
| NPV8 | 224,466 | 168,350 | 151,515 | 121,212 | 109,090 | 98,181 | 93,272 |  |
| per share | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.18 | per share |
| Cash on Balance Sheet |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0.0052 | per share |
| Value per share |  |  |  |  |  |  | 0.19 | per share |

### DCF Approach:

**Using a DCF approach gives us a baseline valuation of A$0.11 per share based on the current share count.**

| Discount Rate = CAPM |  |
| --- | --- |
| CAPM = Rf +B(Rm-Rf) |  |
|  |  |
| Rf= | 5.4% |
| B= | 1.0 |
| Risk premium | 8% |
| Rm = market return | 13.4% |
|  |  |
| Discount Factor/WACC | 13.4% |
| Growth After 06/2033 | 2% |
| Current Share Count, '000 | 505,461 |

| DCF fy'25+ A$'000 | per current share count |
| --- | --- |
| WACC | A$'000 |
| 8% | 262,719 | 0.52 |
| 9% | 195,823 | 0.39 |
| 10% | 147,635 | 0.29 |
| 11% | 111,784 | 0.22 |
| 12% | 84,459 | 0.17 |
| 13% | 63,242 | 0.13 |
| 13.4% | 56,087 | 0.11 |
| 14% | 46,528 | 0.09 |
| 15% | 33,210 | 0.07 |
| 16% | 22,505 | 0.04 |
| 17% | 13,841 | 0.03 |
| 18% | 6,792 | 0.01 |

### Execution & Development Risk Haircut
- Unrisked Target vs. Baseline Valuation: While a risked development scenario (assigning a 42% probability of advancing from BFS to production, based on a general review of project successes) yields a target price of A$0.19 per share, the baseline DCF valuation adopts a conservative stance at A$0.11 per share. (The CAPM approach yields a 13.4% WACC.)

**Key Risk Factors Not Factored In:**
- Dilution & Project Financing: Securing the A$179.3 million pre-production capital expenditure will possibly require substantial equity funding or customer-backed debt. The final mix of equity and debt will be dependent upon what the market will be willing to lend based on offtake agreements or other supply contractual arrangements and their terms.
- Zero Valuation Weight for Secondary Assets: The Barossa Project is assigned A$0.00 valuation weight pending formal regulatory approval and completion of the tenement transfer from Iluka Resources.

### Other Observations:

The Australian dollar exchange rate has a significant effect on returns. Ilmenite is priced in US dollars and it would be anticipated that most of MML's cost base would be in A$.

No one can predict what direction the currency will go, nor is it static, but the returns and value of the project are very much influenced by the assumed exchange rate.

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/6f6d1161-1eea-4784-84e2-fe3a2ce4becc)
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/7fb0534e-cc40-471b-b38c-07351394b3ed)
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/808f655f-aeff-4010-9ebe-ad750f366822)

## Opportunities (not included in the valuation):

- Scale-up of the McLaren resource – The current resource is 529Mt @ 4.5% HM, containing 23.7Mt of in-situ heavy minerals, while more than 60% of the resource sits outside the current PFS mining inventory. This creates potential to extend mine life, increase production or improve project economics as drilling and mine planning advance.
- Higher-grade zones / exploration upside – Recent drilling has identified mineralisation extending ~500m beyond the southern resource boundary, including multiple zones above 5% HM. If incorporated into the resource and ultimately the mine plan, this could improve feed grade and project economics. If the drilling results continue to come in at levels higher than the PFS levels assumed, there is potential for higher-grade raw-material throughput to be sustained for longer.
- Potential for a larger-scale project – The published PFS currently supports a 15.9-year mine life, with a pre-tax NPV8 of A$252m and 26% IRR. Importantly, this is based on only part of the overall resource, meaning the future BFS results could result in further optimisation of throughput, mine sequencing and recoveries. There are further cost levers that can be addressed in the process and operational design of the project which would be additive to the NPV estimated from the PFS.

- Barossa as a second growth option – The acquisition of the Barossa Project in South Australia gives MML exposure to a zircon-rich mineral sands province close to Iluka's Jacinth–Ambrosia operation. Historical exploration suggests ~4.6% HM, with ~16% zircon and ~60% ilmenite within the HM assemblage. It remains an exploration opportunity with no JORC resource yet.

## Risks:

- Exploration & Resource Conversion: Although MML reports an Indicated and Inferred Resource of 529Mt @ 4.5% Heavy Minerals, converting inferred resource estimations into economically mineable reserves depends heavily on continued drilling, metallurgical recovery rates, and favourable feasibility study outcomes.
- Project Execution & Permitting: Advancing the project from exploration to commercial production requires obtaining various environmental permits, Native Title clearances, and regulatory approvals in Western Australia, alongside infrastructure establishment in remote areas.
- Capital Requirements & Shareholder Dilution: As an exploration-stage company without operating cash flows, MML regularly relies on equity raisings or debt to fund its ongoing drilling and feasibility studies, creating a high risk of equity dilution for existing shareholders.

- Commodity Price Volatility: Revenue potential is heavily tied to global supply, demand, and spot pricing for titanium minerals (ilmenite, rutile) and zircon, which fluctuate based on global economic conditions and industrial demand. As mentioned above, we assume an ilmenite price of US$250/t. Ilmenite is assumed to account for 90% of revenue, with non-magnetic concentrate accounting for 10% at an assumed price of US$366/t.

# Market Dynamics:
- MML will supply ilmenite as a raw material that is then turned into TiO₂.
- At its planned ~400ktpa production rate, McLaren could represent approximately 6.7% of current global sulphate-ilmenite demand, giving the project meaningful scale in a relatively specialised titanium-feedstock market.

### Ilmenite Prices in Australia

Raw sulphate ilmenite concentrate prices in Q2 2026 generally ranged from **US$250 to US$372 per dry metric tonne (DMT)** globally, with Australian project benchmarks and export evaluations clustering around **US$250 FOB per dry metric tonne**.

**Regional Price Breakdown (Q2 2026 Averages, US$)**
- 🇺🇸 USA: $372/MT (highest due to robust industrial and aerospace demand)
- 🇯🇵 Japan: $353/MT (driven by steady high-tech and pigment consumption)
- 🇲🇾 Malaysia: $298/MT
- 🇮🇳 India: $279/MT
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia: $256/MT
- 🇦🇺 Concentrate Benchmarks: Sulphate ilmenite concentrate baseline values hover around $250/DMT FOB in pre-feasibility developer metrics.

There have been some recent indications that demand is picking up. The anticipated drop in demand created by geopolitical tensions was small. Inventories have been drawn down and will need to be replenished. It also helps that a major input, sulphuric acid, needed in the production of TiO2 has come down in price post its earlier 2026 price surge caused by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East that restricted sulphur feedstock supply, alongside export bans from major producers like China and Russia.

**Why did the price of Ilmenite change in Q2 2026 in Australia?**

Sentiment surrounding long-run supply tightness firmed following a major producer's investment decision to sustain mineral sands output beyond the current decade and early signs of a US housing-market recovery lifted coatings-sector demand expectations. Chloride-grade content in the export mix continued to command a premium over bulk sulphate-grade material.

**The charts below paint a relatively positive outlook for ilmenite demand, particularly high-grade sulphate ilmenite.**

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/e17ce0ac-6a05-41da-a4ab-c796fe295377)
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/b4b396b8-7533-4b82-974e-edde3c1431d3)
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/d3a311c4-9237-48fd-bb43-7cd04a3d71c2)

# Company Directors & Management:

**The board and management team bring over eight decades** of combined global operational expertise, with a proven track record of designing, financing, building, and operating major resource projects across Australia, Africa, North America, and Asia, including mineral sands, bauxite and energy projects.

| Directors & Management |
| --- |
| Mr Simon Finnis | Mr Finnis is a mining professional with over 35 years of experience, including more than a decade in mineral sands. He played a key role in the development of the Pooncarie Mineral Sands Project in New South Wales, serving as General Manager of Operations in 2004 and later Operations Manager, Eastern Australia. From 2012 to 2014, he was CEO of the US$650 million Grand Cote Mineral Sands Project in Senegal. In 2015, he joined Metro Mining as CEO, overseeing the Bauxite Hills Project in Queensland. He was appointed Managing Director on 16 August 2024. |
| Mr Michael Norman Arnett | Mr Arnett is an experienced legal and corporate advisor with over 20 years in the resources sector, including as a former Partner, Director, and national head of the Natural Resources Business Unit at Norton Rose (formerly Deacons). He brings expertise in legal and regulatory compliance, financial governance, corporate transactions, and international commercial law. With a track record advising on major projects and risks across mining, energy, and infrastructure, he offers strategic insight backed by global and industry-specific knowledge. He is a member of the Sustainability Committee. |
| Mr Peter A Secker | Mr Secker is a mining engineer with over 40 years of experience in project development and operations. He was instrumental in designing, building, commissioning, and operating the TiWest Project at Cooljarloo, Western Australia. He has led the development of five greenfield projects across Australia, China, Africa, Canada, and Mexico. Since 1990, he has served as a CEO of public companies and has raised over $2 billion in debt and equity financing. Peter was appointed as a Non-Executive Director on 16 August 2024. |
| Benjamin (Ben) Patrick Donovan | Company Secretary |

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/ccc4bda6-4b44-4cd0-a178-3c8401a3680e)

# What is TiO2?

![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/b8699d5e-9556-46b1-8d55-75640df34d8d)

**Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) is a white, naturally occurring oxide** of titanium whose uses range from pigments in paints and sunscreens to electronic materials in experimental solar cells and batteries. It is bright, opaque, chemically stable, and resistant to UV light.

**Advantages**
- Excellent whiteness and brightness
- High opacity (covering power)
- Non-toxic in bulk form for most industrial applications
- Chemically stable
- Strong resistance to UV radiation

# Nearly 95% of all TiO₂ is used as a white pigment.
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/870ac8f3-5f9e-4274-8cee-2de367fb44e0)
**The remaining 5% of TiO₂ demand is processed into titanium metal for use in:**

·         Aerospace & Defence: Airframes, military jet engines, naval ships, and spacecraft due to its extreme strength-to-weight ratio and heat resistance.

·         Medical Technology: High-grade biocompatible surgical implants, joint replacements, and pacemakers.

·         Industrial Processing: Corrosion-resistant heat exchangers and piping networks in chemical and desalination plants.

# The Primary Market Growth Drivers
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/e0affc3e-8ac5-471d-b72a-d648ba145dbd)- Global Infrastructure & Urbanisation: Large public construction initiatives—most notably in emerging economies such as India, China, and Nigeria—are driving heavy long-term demand for durable architectural paints and protective coatings.
- Packaging and E-Commerce: The continued expansion of online shipping, food delivery networks, and pharmaceutical safety has accelerated the demand for opaque, light-blocking plastic films and container packaging.
- Automotive Innovation: TiO₂ is increasingly relied upon to ensure the longevity of lightweight vehicle components and premium consumer vehicle coatings.

## Shifting Smelting Chemistries

Manufacturers are steadily migrating toward the cleaner, high-purity **chloride process** over the older, higher-waste **sulphate process** to satisfy stringent green supply chain requirements.

**This is advantageous for MML because its high-grade sulphate ilmenite concentrate is particularly suited to the chloride process. **MML's sulphate ilmenite is well-suited as a bridge feedstock for the chloride process because of its purity, high combined iron/titanium ratio, and ideal performance in a downstream electric arc furnace, which removes the iron as high-quality pig iron prior to the chloride slag going to the chloride smelter to be converted to TiO2.
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/e64da916-e2b2-4bdf-8db2-37cf7c959dc0)
| The titanium dioxide (TiO₂) chloride process offers higher product purity, superior optical performance and less overall solid-waste generation thanthe older sulphate process.Product Quality and Performance• Higher Purity: The chloride route yields a TiO₂ purity of 95–97%, compared to 92–94% from the sulphate method. • Superior Optics: Chloride-produced pigment provides a brighter, bluer undertone (less yellowing), higher opacity (hiding power), and superior gloss.• Better Dispersion: It features a narrower particle size distribution, which prevents streaking or clumping in high-end plastics and automotive coatings.Operational Efficiency• Continuous Operation: The chloride method runs as a continuous gas-phase process, whereas the traditional sulphate method relies on a slower, intermittent batch procedure.• Energy Savings: Because the chloride route avoids the extensive high-temperature rotary-kiln sintering/calcination required to dry and convert crystal phases in the sulphate route, it generally saves energy during final pigment refining.Environmental and Waste Benefits• Chlorine Recycling: A major operational benefit is that the chlorine gas released during the final oxidation stage can be captured and recycled back into the initial chlorinator.• Reduced Solid Waste: It produces significantly fewer solid secondary byproducts (such as large volumes of iron vitriol or dilute waste acids) per tonne of finished product than the standard sulphate process. |
| --- |

# ESG

McLaren Minerals Limited (ASX: MML) incorporates several key environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices into its exploration and ongoing development of the McLaren Titanium Mineral Sands Project:

**Environmental Sustainability**
- Progressive Backfilling & Waste Management are designed to minimise long-term land disturbance. Permanent tailings storage facilities (dams) are required only for the initial six months of production. Beyond this phase, overburden and processed barren sand are directly backfilled into mine voids to enable progressive land rehabilitation.
- Low-Impact Processing uses physical extraction methods (gravity and magnetic separation) that reduce reliance on chemical reagents during early-stage mineral recovery.

**Social Responsibility**
- First Nations Recognition means MML embeds formal commitments to Traditional Owners through active engagement, cultural heritage preservation, and site acknowledgements across operating regions in Western Australia.
- The local community focus prioritises regional hiring and infrastructure alignment, using nearby logistics routes and regional deep-water ports to limit community transportation impacts.

**Corporate Governance**
- The Board and its committees conduct regular reviews of risk and compliance policies alongside corporate disclosures aligned with ASX compliance guidelines.
- The company's Critical Minerals Strategy positions it to supply raw materials such as ilmenite that are essential for industrial manufacturing and modern clean-technology supply chains.

# A word on valuation:

## The Lassonde Curve:

The **Lassonde Curve** is a framework used in the mining industry to illustrate how the **economic value and perceived risk of a mineral exploration project change as it progresses from early exploration through to production**.

It is particularly useful for valuing exploration companies because **the market typically assigns progressively higher value as geological uncertainty is reduced and development milestones are achieved.**
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/823ea5be-fc8f-496b-8559-af06458f5f1f)
For **McLaren Minerals (ASX: MML)**, the McLaren Titanium Project has progressed substantially beyond grassroots exploration.

**Exploration → Discovery → Resource → PFS → DFS/BFS → Financing → Construction → Production**

**MML is currently somewhere between the** **PFS and BFS stage**, based on the January 2026 PFS.

That means the investment proposition has shifted from:
> **"Is there an economically interesting mineral deposit?"**

toward:
> **"Can the defined project be engineered, financed, permitted and constructed at an acceptable cost?"**

**Looking at a risked NPV approach relative to the Lassonde Curve, **it is possible to see the potential trajectory of MML's value and the value creation that will happen going forward.

It sounds a bit repetitive, but the **key is execution.**
![](https://homodeus.one/api/draft-image/d2a69a75-92f1-4399-8836-1a9279971fb5)

## Financial Tearsheet

| McLaren Minerals Ltd, fiscal year ending June 30th |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | Market Price |   | A$0.012 |   |   |   |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Interim Quarters** | **Unit** | **Q1 2026** | **Q2 2026** | **Q3 2026** | **Q4 2026** |  |  | **Full year ** | **Unit** | **fy2026** | **fy2027** | **fy2028** | **fy2029** |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **A$'000** |  |  |  |  |
| **Operating Cash Flow** | **A$'000** | (404) | (342) | (303) | (310) |  |  | Gross Revenue | A$'000 |  | 0  | 87,307  | 174,613  |
| **Investing Cash Flow** | A$'000 | (378) | (254) | (178) | (890) |  |  | ** Ilmenite** | A$'000 |  | 0  | 78,269  | 156,538  |
| **Financing Cash Flow** |  | 732  | 3,232  | 6  | 1,415  |  |  | Non-magnetic concentrate | A$'000 |  | 0  | 9,037  | 18,075  |
| **Net Cash Flow** | A$'000 | (50) | 160  | 2,111  | 209  |  |  | Royalties. 6.5% | A$'000 |  | 0  | (5,675) | (11,350) |
| **Ending Cash Balance** | A$'000 | 255  | 2,891  | 2,416  | 2,625  |  |  | Net Revenue | A$'000 | 0  | 0  | 81,632  | 163,263  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **Total Operating Costs** | A$'000 | (1,839) | (2,500) | (53,373) | (104,000) |
| **Interim Semi-annual, P& L** |  | **1H FY25** | **2H FY25** | **1H FY26** | **2H FY26** |  |  | EBITDA | A$'000 | (1,814) | (4,870) | 23,838  | 54,843  |
| Interest income |  | 7  | 2  | 2  | 11  |  |  | **EBITDA Margin (%)** | **%** | **0%** | **0%** | **29%** | **34%** |
| Other income |  | - | 8  | - | - |  |  | Depreciation | A$'000 | (6) | 0  | (16,400) | (16,400) |
| Total income |  | **7 ** | **10 ** | **2 ** | **11 ** |  |  | EBIT | A$'000 | (1,820) | (4,870) | 7,438  | 38,443  |
| Total expenses |  | (1,101) | (1,286) | (666) | (1,168) |  |  | Interest expense | A$'000 | 0  | (4,303) | (14,144) | (13,144) |
| Loss before tax |  | (1,095) | (1,275) | (664) | (1,157) |  |  | PBT | A$'000 | (1,820) | (9,173) | (6,706) | 25,299  |
| Net loss |  | (1,095) | (1,275) | (664) | (1,157) |  |  | Tax | A$'000 | 0  | 0  | 0  | (9,611) |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | NPAT | A$'000 | (1,820) | (9,173) | (6,706) | 21,345  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **NPAT margin** | **%** |  |  | **-8%** | **13%** |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| **Revenue Split ** |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **Cash Flow Statement** |  | **fy2026** | **fy2027** | **fy2028** | **fy2029** |
| Ilmenite | est % | 90% |  |  |  |  |  | Operations | A$'000 | (836) | (1,387) | (3,891) | 24,822  |
| Non-magnetic concentrate | est % | 10% |  |  |  |  |  | Investing | A$'000 | (2,107) | (2,107) | (179,302) | (5,402) |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Financing | A$'000 | 6,026  | 6,026  | 185,780  | (5,226) |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | FCF | A$'000 | 3,083  | 2,532  | 2,587  | 14,194  |
| **Market information** | **Unit** |  |  |  |  |  |  | **capex** | A$'000 | (2,105) | (2,105) | (179,300) | (5,400) |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Share Price | A$ | 0.012 |  |  |  |  |  | **Balance Sheet** |  | **fy2026** | **fy2027** | **fy2028** | **fy2029** |
| No of Shares | 000 | 505,462 |  |  |  |  |  | Cash & Short-Term Investments | A$'000 | 2,625 | 4,561 | 7,271 | 19,501 |
| Market Cap | A$'000 | 6,066  |  |  |  |  |  |      Total Current Assets | A$'000 | 2,836 | 4,609 | 7,320 | 24,022 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |       Net P P & E | A$'000 | 8 | 2,105 | 181,405 | 170,405 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **     Total Assets** | A$'000 | **7,483** | **10,371** | **191,400** | **196,121** |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **     Total Current Liabilities** | A$'000 | **785** | **17** | **6,640** | **16,149** |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | Long-Term Debt |  | - | - | 107,580 | 95,354 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |      Total Liabilities |  | 785 | 17 | 114,220 | 111,503 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **     Total Stockholders' Equity** |  | **6,699** | **10,354** | **77,179** | **84,618** |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | **     Total Liab & Stock. Equity** |  | **7,483** | **10,371** | **191,400** | **196,121** |

Source: Homodeus estimates, Company data, as of 2 Oct 2026

---

## Disclosures

### Personal disclosures

The analyst(s) received assistance from the subject company or companies in preparing this research report. The company provided communication to senior management and information on the company and its industry. As part of due diligence, the analyst(s) have independently and critically reviewed the communications and information provided by the company to form the opinions expressed in this report. The analyst(s) have taken care to maintain honest and fair objectivity in writing this report and making any recommendation. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Homodeus One Pty Ltd. No part of the fee, compensation, or employee remuneration paid has, or will, directly or indirectly impact the content provided in this report.

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McLaren Minerals Limited (ASX:MML) | Price: A$0.012 | Valuation: A$0.11

*Price and valuation as at 5 October 2026 (*not covered)*

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*Anthony  Han (anthony.han@homodeus.one · +61 434 489 906) — Published 2026-10-05*